Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 418 at 13:04 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 418 OGG 13:04 → LAX 21:21 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AS 934 OGG 15:00 → LAX 23:07 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 418 United Flight history →	OGG 13:04	LAX 21:21	20%	5%	0.7%	92%worse than usual
DL 463 Delta Flight history →	OGG 13:05	LAX 21:30	20%	4%	0.8%	80%
AA 254 American Flight history →	OGG 13:14	LAX 21:40	24%	6%	0.6%	81%
AS 981 Alaska	OGG 12:19	LAX 20:22	27%	6%	0.7%	no record
AS 934 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 15:00	LAX 23:07	31%	8%	0.6%	63%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	OGG 05:53 → HNL 06:47AS 1015	1h 13m Honolulu	HNL 08:00 → LAX 16:20AS 810	7h 27m	94%	70%
Alaska Details →	OGG 18:35 → HNL 19:29AS 1175	1h 10m Honolulu	HNL 20:39 → LAX 05:00 +1AS 804	7h 25m	88%	66%
Alaska Details →	OGG 09:18 → HNL 09:58AS 1055	1h 05m Honolulu	HNL 11:03 → LAX 19:34AS 878	7h 16m	91%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON