Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 22–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2271 OGG 13:20 → LIH 14:29 · 22% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1159 OGG 14:24 → LIH 15:13 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2271 Southwest	OGG 13:20	LIH 14:29	22%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1049 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 12:16	LIH 13:06	23%	3%	0.7%	73%
AS 1159 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 14:24	LIH 15:13	28%	5%	0.7%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON