Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 10:06, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Portland on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 558 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 21:43	PDX 06:20	12%	3%	0.8%	84%
AS 890 Alaska	OGG 11:15	PDX 19:30	18%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OGG 18:35 → HNL 19:29AS 1175	2h 22m Honolulu	HNL 21:51 → PDX 06:41 +1AS 879	9h 06m	99%	79%
Alaska Details →	OGG 00:09 → SAN 08:16AS 484	2h 48m San Diego	SAN 11:04 → PDX 13:43AS 576	10h 34m	99%	77%
United Details →	OGG 12:00 → SFO 19:59UA 1726	2h 53m San Francisco	SFO 22:52 → PDX 00:50 +1UA 2384	9h 50m	99%	72%
Alaska Details →	OGG 08:41 → HNL 09:20AS 1045	3h 02m Honolulu	HNL 12:22 → PDX 20:50AS 814	9h 09m	100%	72%
United Details →	OGG 07:10 → SFO 15:09UA 1958	1h 44m San Francisco	SFO 16:53 → PDX 18:50UA 1812	8h 40m	98%	68%
Alaska Details →	OGG 10:32 → SFO 18:27AS 978	2h 59m San Francisco	SFO 21:26 → PDX 23:20AS 2023 · flown by Horizon	9h 48m	97%	67%
Alaska Details →	OGG 05:53 → HNL 06:47AS 1015	52m Honolulu	HNL 07:39 → PDX 16:09AS 860	7h 16m	78%	64%
Alaska Details →	OGG 10:36 → LAS 19:10AS 932	1h 25m Las Vegas	LAS 20:35 → PDX 22:54AS 790	9h 18m	91%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON