Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 09:18, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Phoenix on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1526 Southwest	OGG 20:26	PHX 05:01	9%	3%	1.1%	no record
AA 432 American Flight history →	OGG 23:14	PHX 08:16	21%	10%	1.4%	94%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OGG 08:41 → HNL 09:20AS 1045	2h 31m Honolulu	HNL 11:51 → PHX 20:38AS 836	8h 57m	99%	80%
United Details →	OGG 07:10 → SFO 15:09UA 1958	1h 16m San Francisco	SFO 16:25 → PHX 18:39UA 574	8h 29m	98%	64%
Alaska Details →	OGG 07:00 → SEA 15:42AS 246	3h 10m Seattle	SEA 18:52 → PHX 21:43AS 632	11h 43m	100%	63%
United Details →	OGG 12:00 → SFO 19:59UA 1726	1h 18m San Francisco	SFO 21:17 → PHX 23:33UA 1653	8h 33m	93%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON