Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 19:43, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching San Diego on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3224 Southwest	OGG 21:56	SAN 06:48	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 484 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 00:09	SAN 08:05	23%	5%	0.9%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OGG 18:35 → HNL 19:29AS 1175	2h 31m Honolulu	HNL 22:00 → SAN 06:21 +1AS 93	8h 46m	99%	73%
Alaska Details →	OGG 08:41 → HNL 09:20AS 1045	3h 19m Honolulu	HNL 12:39 → SAN 21:07AS 816	9h 26m	100%	67%
United Details →	OGG 07:10 → SFO 15:09UA 1958	3h 57m San Francisco	SFO 19:06 → SAN 21:05UA 1577	10h 55m	98%	63%
United Details →	OGG 12:00 → SFO 19:59UA 1726	2h 55m San Francisco	SFO 22:54 → SAN 00:51 +1UA 1389	9h 51m	99%	63%
Delta Details →	OGG 13:05 → LAX 21:30DL 463	1h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 22:45 → SAN 23:42DL 3746 · flown by SkyWest	7h 37m	87%	62%
Alaska Details →	OGG 07:00 → SEA 15:42AS 246	1h 11m Seattle	SEA 16:53 → SAN 19:40AS 791	9h 40m	92%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON