Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 10:06, is the safest bet: 65% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 960 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 13:55	SMF 21:57	28%	8%	0.8%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	OGG 07:10 → SFO 15:09UA 1958	3h 19m San Francisco	SFO 18:28 → SMF 19:36UA 5796 · flown by SkyWest	9h 26m	98%	70%
Alaska Details →	OGG 08:41 → HNL 09:20AS 1045	2h 53m Honolulu	HNL 12:13 → SMF 20:17AS 820	8h 36m	100%	70%
United Details →	OGG 12:00 → SFO 19:59UA 1726	57m San Francisco	SFO 20:56 → SMF 21:59UA 1862	6h 59m	84%	53%
Alaska Details →	OGG 07:00 → SEA 15:42AS 246	1h 35m Seattle	SEA 17:17 → SMF 19:04AS 764	9h 04m	95%	53%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	OGG 12:16 → LIH 13:06AS 1049	51m Lihue	LIH 13:57 → SMF 22:21AS 966	7h 05m	58%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON