tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3225 at 10:55, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3225 Southwest OKC 10:55 AUS 12:23 13% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58UA 4751 · flown by SkyWest 1h 02m Denver DEN 08:00 → AUS 11:15UA 456 5h 10m 94% 84%
DeltaDetails → OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 6h 36m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → OKC 07:00 → ATL 10:10DL 1158 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → AUS 13:54DL 2104 6h 54m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → OKC 09:39 → IAH 11:15UA 6255 · flown by Mesa 3h 05m Houston IAH 14:20 → AUS 15:29UA 6118 · flown by Mesa 5h 50m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → OKC 05:01 → DFW 06:07AA 656 1h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:37 → AUS 08:49AA 1643 3h 48m 95% 76%
AmericanDetails → OKC 06:16 → DFW 07:29AA 3896 · flown by Envoy 3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:59 → AUS 12:12AA 1070 5h 56m 98% 71%
DeltaDetails → OKC 11:09 → ATL 14:17DL 2490 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → AUS 17:19DL 1491 6h 10m 97% 70%
UnitedDetails → OKC 17:05 → IAH 18:53UA 6253 · flown by Mesa 3h 22m Houston IAH 22:15 → AUS 23:12UA 1179 6h 07m 97% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → OKC 09:39 → IAH 11:15UA 6255 · flown by Mesa 50m Houston IAH 12:05 → AUS 13:12UA 1859 3h 33m 74% 58%
UnitedDetails → OKC 18:44 → DEN 19:31UA 4768 · flown by SkyWest 56m Denver DEN 20:27 → AUS 23:44UA 1943 5h 00m 63% 38%
AmericanDetails → OKC 18:27 → DFW 19:46AA 2812 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:33 → AUS 21:37AA 2707 3h 10m 58% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON