tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3226 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3226 Southwest OKC 07:30 BNA 09:23 6% 2% 0.7% no record
WN 114 Southwest OKC 17:55 BNA 19:48 26% 10% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 5h 41m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58UA 4751 · flown by SkyWest 1h 02m Denver DEN 08:00 → BNA 11:42UA 605 5h 37m 94% 84%
DeltaDetails → OKC 07:45 → MSP 09:58DL 3844 · flown by SkyWest 2h 52m Minneapolis MSP 12:50 → BNA 14:52DL 2843 7h 07m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → OKC 05:54 → LGA 10:23AA 4535 · flown by Republic 1h 19m New York LGA 11:42 → BNA 13:14AA 4481 · flown by Republic 7h 20m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → OKC 07:00 → ATL 10:10DL 1158 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159 7h 03m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → OKC 05:01 → DFW 06:07AA 656 1h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:37 → BNA 09:37AA 1083 4h 36m 95% 76%
AmericanDetails → OKC 06:40 → CLT 10:20AA 2273 2h 58m Charlotte CLT 13:18 → BNA 13:49AA 538 7h 09m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → OKC 14:33 → IAH 16:10UA 4838 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 54m Houston IAH 20:04 → BNA 22:25UA 750 7h 52m 100% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → OKC 13:49 → CLT 17:18AA 1626 58m Charlotte CLT 18:16 → BNA 18:42AA 2402 4h 53m 70% 46%
UnitedDetails → OKC 18:44 → DEN 19:31UA 4768 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Denver DEN 20:31 → BNA 00:08 +1UA 1287 5h 24m 67% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON