Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2273 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 2273 OKC 06:40 → CLT 10:20 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1626 OKC 13:49 → CLT 17:18 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2273 American Flight history →	OKC 06:40	CLT 10:20	9%	5%	2.0%	90%
AA 2882 American	OKC 17:06	CLT 20:46	24%	8%	1.1%	no record
AA 2177 American	OKC 13:36	CLT 17:06	25%	7%	1.2%	no record
AA 1626 American Flight history →	OKC 13:49	CLT 17:18	27%	6%	1.1%	89%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON