Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3649 at 09:42 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3649 Southwest	OKC 09:42	DAL 10:55	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1360 Southwest	OKC 18:30	DAL 19:41	29%	9%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184	1h 19m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115	5h 35m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	OKC 07:00 → ATL 10:10DL 1158	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	8h 03m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	OKC 11:09 → ATL 14:17DL 2490	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	6h 45m	99%	72%
Delta Details →	OKC 17:07 → ATL 20:29DL 2862	46m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	5h 18m	76%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON