tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1518 at 12:50 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1518 Southwest OKC 12:50 DCA 16:49 23% 6% 0.8% no record
AA 2475 American OKC 17:17 DCA 21:11 34% 11% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Oklahoma City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58UA 4751 · flown by SkyWest 2h 33m Denver DEN 09:31 → DCA 15:00UA 789 7h 55m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184 2h 03m Atlanta ATL 10:59 → DCA 12:46DL 1798 5h 57m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → OKC 05:01 → DFW 06:07AA 656 2h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:40 → DCA 12:42AA 1177 6h 41m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → OKC 05:54 → LGA 10:23AA 4535 · flown by Republic 3h 05m New York LGA 13:28 → DCA 14:59AA 4773 · flown by Republic 8h 05m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → OKC 14:33 → IAH 16:10UA 4838 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 40m Houston IAH 19:50 → DCA 23:59UA 2224 8h 26m 100% 74%
AmericanDetails → OKC 06:16 → DFW 07:29AA 3896 · flown by Envoy 2h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:31 → DCA 13:27AA 2399 6h 11m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → OKC 07:00 → ATL 10:10DL 1158 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360 6h 56m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → OKC 09:39 → IAH 11:15UA 6255 · flown by Mesa 3h 05m Houston IAH 14:20 → DCA 18:31UA 625 7h 52m 99% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → OKC 14:33 → IAH 16:10UA 4838 · flown by CommuteAir 53m Houston IAH 17:03 → DCA 21:24UA 235 5h 51m 73% 52%
AmericanDetails → OKC 13:48 → ORD 16:06AA 6395 · flown by SkyWest 1h 04m Chicago ORD 17:10 → DCA 20:26AA 489 5h 38m 72% 34%
UnitedDetails → OKC 13:19 → ORD 15:30UA 5867 · flown by SkyWest 50m Chicago ORD 16:20 → DCA 19:28UA 2812 5h 09m 56% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON