Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3230 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 3230 OKC 07:00 → DEN 07:44 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2422 OKC 17:10 → DEN 18:28 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3230 Southwest	OKC 07:00	DEN 07:44	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 4751 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 06:05	DEN 06:58	7%	5%	0.8%	94%
WN 2615 Southwest	OKC 10:05	DEN 10:49	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2609 United Flight history →	OKC 08:52	DEN 09:36	15%	5%	0.9%	77%
UA 5490 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 11:30	DEN 12:26	17%	8%	0.7%	86%
UA 4768 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 18:44	DEN 19:31	33%	13%	1.0%	72%
F9 1927 Frontier Flight history →	OKC 20:20	DEN 21:10	34%	11%	1.4%	80%worse than usual
WN 2357 Southwest	OKC 19:30	DEN 20:15	35%	10%	0.8%	no record
WN 1777 Southwest	OKC 16:55	DEN 17:36	36%	11%	0.9%	no record
UA 2422 United	OKC 17:10	DEN 18:28	42%	16%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON