Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 656 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 656 OKC 05:01 → DFW 06:07 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2812 OKC 18:27 → DFW 19:46 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 656 American Flight history →	OKC 05:01	DFW 06:07	9%	6%	2.6%	92%
AA 3896 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	OKC 06:16	DFW 07:29	10%	5%	2.1%	86%
AA 6203 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 08:25	DFW 09:44	16%	8%	0.9%	86%
AA 2272 American Flight history →	OKC 07:31	DFW 08:39	16%	7%	1.9%	86%
AA 1902 American Flight history →	OKC 11:07	DFW 12:15	18%	7%	1.0%	81%
MQ 3555 Envoy	OKC 20:31	DFW 21:47	20%	8%	1.3%	no record
AA 3099 American	OKC 12:31	DFW 13:40	22%	8%	1.0%	no record
AA 2929 American Flight history →	OKC 15:24	DFW 16:38	27%	12%	1.2%	72%
AA 2832 American	OKC 17:35	DFW 18:43	34%	12%	1.3%	no record
AA 2812 American Flight history →	OKC 18:27	DFW 19:46	35%	13%	1.2%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON