tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3264 at 17:00, with a 30% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3264 Southwest OKC 17:00 MCO 20:45 30% 10% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Oklahoma City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58UA 4751 · flown by SkyWest 1h 12m Denver DEN 08:10 → MCO 13:57UA 2292 6h 52m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184 1h 29m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → MCO 12:00DL 664 5h 11m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → OKC 07:00 → ATL 10:10DL 1158 1h 15m Atlanta ATL 11:25 → MCO 13:00DL 1030 5h 00m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → OKC 07:45 → MSP 09:58DL 3844 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MCO 17:04DL 2225 8h 19m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → OKC 05:01 → DFW 06:07AA 656 2h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:38 → MCO 12:17AA 2136 6h 16m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → OKC 12:01 → IAH 13:37UA 6277 · flown by Mesa 3h 32m Houston IAH 17:09 → MCO 20:48UA 1571 7h 47m 100% 71%
DeltaDetails → OKC 06:20 → LGA 10:49DL 5172 · flown by Endeavor 1h 00m New York LGA 11:49 → MCO 14:42DL 2564 7h 22m 89% 70%
UnitedDetails → OKC 09:39 → IAH 11:15UA 6255 · flown by Mesa 3h 21m Houston IAH 14:36 → MCO 18:14UA 496 7h 35m 100% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → OKC 14:33 → IAH 16:10UA 4838 · flown by CommuteAir 59m Houston IAH 17:09 → MCO 20:48UA 1571 5h 15m 74% 53%
AmericanDetails → OKC 18:27 → DFW 19:46AA 2812 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:35 → MCO 00:21 +1AA 1336 4h 54m 59% 30%
AmericanDetails → OKC 13:49 → CLT 17:18AA 1626 47m Charlotte CLT 18:05 → MCO 20:01AA 612 5h 12m 47% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON