tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 419 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 419 Southwest OKC 05:00 MDW 07:06 4% 2% 1.2% no record
WN 2434 Southwest OKC 16:10 MDW 18:17 24% 10% 4.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417 6h 07m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → OKC 11:09 → ATL 14:17DL 2490 58m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728 5h 06m 90% 66%
DeltaDetails → OKC 11:57 → MSP 14:03DL 5142 · flown by Endeavor 2h 35m Minneapolis MSP 16:38 → MDW 18:18DL 4714 · flown by Endeavor 6h 20m 96% 57%
DeltaDetails → OKC 07:45 → MSP 09:58DL 3844 · flown by SkyWest 1h 32m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor 5h 24m 97% 57%
DeltaDetails → OKC 17:07 → ATL 20:29DL 2862 46m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076 5h 08m 76% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON