tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:49, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Oklahoma City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332 6h 18m 98% 70%
DeltaDetails → OKC 17:07 → ATL 20:29DL 2862 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 6h 48m 96% 68%
AmericanDetails → OKC 05:01 → DFW 06:07AA 656 2h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:54 → MIA 12:55AA 1219 6h 54m 98% 68%
UnitedDetails → OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58UA 4751 · flown by SkyWest 2h 31m Denver DEN 09:29 → MIA 15:24UA 1418 8h 19m 98% 64%
DeltaDetails → OKC 13:01 → ATL 16:14DL 2020 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 19:53 → MIA 21:59DL 1588 7h 58m 99% 60%
AmericanDetails → OKC 05:54 → LGA 10:23AA 4535 · flown by Republic 2h 39m New York LGA 13:02 → MIA 15:58AA 605 9h 04m 98% 60%
DeltaDetails → OKC 07:00 → ATL 10:10DL 1158 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:30DL 1323 7h 30m 99% 59%
UnitedDetails → OKC 13:43 → IAH 15:25UA 5531 · flown by SkyWest 3h 36m Houston IAH 19:01 → MIA 22:40UA 1829 7h 57m 98% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → OKC 18:27 → DFW 19:46AA 2812 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:42 → MIA 00:37 +1AA 2090 5h 10m 62% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON