Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 3844 at 07:45, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3844 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 07:45	MSP 09:58	7%	4%	0.7%	89%
DL 5142 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	OKC 11:57	MSP 14:03	24%	9%	0.0%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58UA 4751 · flown by SkyWest	2h 42m Denver	DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397	6h 35m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	8h 01m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	OKC 08:26 → SLC 10:07DL 4029 · flown by SkyWest	1h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924	6h 14m	94%	79%
United Details →	OKC 09:39 → IAH 11:15UA 6255 · flown by Mesa	3h 33m Houston	IAH 14:48 → MSP 17:49UA 1818	8h 10m	100%	75%
Delta Details →	OKC 17:07 → ATL 20:29DL 2862	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	7h 32m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	OKC 11:09 → ATL 14:17DL 2490	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18DL 2654	7h 09m	99%	74%
United Details →	OKC 14:33 → IAH 16:10UA 4838 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 52m Houston	IAH 20:02 → MSP 23:12UA 1872	8h 39m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	OKC 13:01 → ATL 16:14DL 2020	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 19:59 → MSP 21:38DL 1280	8h 37m	99%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	OKC 19:07 → ORD 21:14AA 6484 · flown by SkyWest	1h 31m Chicago	ORD 22:45 → MSP 00:41 +1AA 1048	5h 34m	73%	36%
United Details →	OKC 13:19 → ORD 15:30UA 5867 · flown by SkyWest	50m Chicago	ORD 16:20 → MSP 18:17UA 1935	4h 58m	56%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON