Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4994 at 07:41 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 42–44%.

Safest bet that day AA 4994 OKC 07:41 → ORD 10:05 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time Riskiest OO 4744 OKC 17:48 → ORD 19:59 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4994 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 07:41	ORD 10:05	13%	9%	1.9%	63%
UA 2183 United	OKC 07:12	ORD 09:25	15%	6%	1.0%	no record
UA 5823 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 08:45	ORD 11:11	17%	8%	2.0%	78%
MQ 4037 Envoy	OKC 12:37	ORD 14:50	33%	12%	3.8%	no record
UA 5867 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 13:19	ORD 15:30	35%	22%	5.7%	76%worse than usual
AA 6395 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 13:48	ORD 16:06	37%	21%	5.7%	73%
AA 6484 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 19:07	ORD 21:14	42%	23%	6.3%	65%
OO 4744 SkyWest	OKC 17:48	ORD 19:59	44%	25%	5.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON