Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3241 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 3241 OKC 06:35 → PHX 06:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3243 OKC 21:35 → PHX 21:59 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3241 Southwest	OKC 06:35	PHX 06:59	5%	2%	1.0%	no record
AA 6392 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 08:59	PHX 09:32	15%	9%	1.0%	84%
WN 3242 Southwest	OKC 14:15	PHX 14:38	17%	6%	0.8%	no record
OO 4894 SkyWest	OKC 14:45	PHX 15:11	18%	12%	0.8%	no record
WN 1698 Southwest	OKC 17:15	PHX 17:44	19%	9%	0.8%	no record
OO 5002 SkyWest	OKC 17:25	PHX 17:51	20%	14%	0.8%	no record
WN 3243 Southwest	OKC 21:35	PHX 21:59	21%	12%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON