tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 405 Alaska Flight history → OKC 14:55 SEA 16:53 22% 4% 1.0% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Oklahoma City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → OKC 07:45 → MSP 09:58DL 3844 · flown by SkyWest 1h 12m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889 7h 15m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629 11h 01m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → OKC 08:26 → SLC 10:07DL 4029 · flown by SkyWest 1h 28m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 6h 23m 96% 74%
UnitedDetails → OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58UA 4751 · flown by SkyWest 1h 01m Denver DEN 07:59 → SEA 09:48UA 1348 5h 43m 93% 74%
UnitedDetails → OKC 08:52 → DEN 09:36UA 2609 1h 55m Denver DEN 11:31 → SEA 13:35UA 2058 6h 43m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → OKC 11:09 → ATL 14:17DL 2490 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472 9h 56m 98% 68%
AmericanDetails → OKC 05:01 → DFW 06:07AA 656 2h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:25 → SEA 10:50AA 767 7h 49m 96% 68%
AmericanDetails → OKC 06:16 → DFW 07:30AA 3896 · flown by Envoy 3h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:45 → SEA 13:03AA 717 8h 47m 98% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → OKC 09:38 → IAH 11:17UA 6219 · flown by Mesa 46m Houston IAH 12:03 → SEA 14:34UA 2228 6h 56m 57% 38%
AmericanDetails → OKC 15:24 → DFW 16:38AA 2929 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:38 → SEA 20:00AA 1483 6h 36m 73% 37%
UnitedDetails → OKC 13:19 → ORD 15:30UA 5867 · flown by SkyWest 50m Chicago ORD 16:20 → SEA 19:06UA 1801 7h 47m 56% 24%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON