tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: DL 4029 at 08:26 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 4029 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → OKC 08:26 SLC 10:07 7% 5% 0.9% 93%
DL 3882 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → OKC 18:00 SLC 19:38 19% 8% 1.7% 92%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Oklahoma City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → OKC 07:45 → MSP 09:58DL 3844 · flown by SkyWest 2h 31m Minneapolis MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651 7h 34m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387 7h 21m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → OKC 09:39 → IAH 11:15UA 6255 · flown by Mesa 3h 10m Houston IAH 14:25 → SLC 16:40UA 6207 · flown by Mesa 8h 01m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58UA 4751 · flown by SkyWest 51m Denver DEN 07:49 → SLC 09:24UA 497 4h 19m 88% 78%
DeltaDetails → OKC 07:00 → ATL 10:10DL 1158 1h 46m Atlanta ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663 7h 50m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → OKC 08:52 → DEN 09:36UA 2609 2h 04m Denver DEN 11:40 → SLC 13:13UA 1963 5h 21m 99% 74%
AmericanDetails → OKC 05:01 → DFW 06:07AA 656 2h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:43 → SLC 10:37AA 1878 6h 36m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → OKC 11:09 → ATL 14:17DL 2490 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526 7h 09m 93% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → OKC 08:59 → PHX 09:32AA 6392 · flown by SkyWest 49m Phoenix PHX 10:21 → SLC 13:02AA 6462 · flown by SkyWest 5h 03m 74% 60%
UnitedDetails → OKC 12:01 → IAH 13:37UA 6277 · flown by Mesa 48m Houston IAH 14:25 → SLC 16:40UA 6207 · flown by Mesa 5h 39m 73% 58%
FrontierDetails → OKC 20:20 → DEN 21:10F9 1927 1h 03m Denver DEN 22:13 → SLC 23:44F9 4251 4h 24m 68% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON