Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1136 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 1136 OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:41 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2364 OMA 18:33 → ATL 22:00 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1136 Delta Flight history →	OMA 05:25	ATL 08:41	5%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 1157 Delta Flight history →	OMA 07:01	ATL 10:12	6%	3%	0.8%	93%
DL 2632 Delta Flight history →	OMA 10:14	ATL 13:29	9%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 1125 Delta Flight history →	OMA 13:36	ATL 16:59	14%	4%	0.7%	86%
DL 2364 Delta Flight history →	OMA 18:33	ATL 22:00	17%	6%	1.0%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON