Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 4825 at 16:35, with a 27% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4825 Southwest	OMA 16:35	BNA 18:30	27%	8%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	OMA 06:00 → DEN 06:49UA 1442	1h 11m Denver	DEN 08:00 → BNA 11:42UA 605	5h 42m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:41DL 1136	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867	6h 05m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	OMA 06:25 → DTW 09:28DL 4110 · flown by SkyWest	2h 57m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → BNA 13:03DL 1557	6h 38m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	OMA 08:05 → MSP 09:30DL 3512 · flown by SkyWest	3h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 12:50 → BNA 14:52DL 2843	6h 47m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	OMA 07:01 → ATL 10:12DL 1157	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159	7h 02m	99%	79%
United Details →	OMA 06:15 → IAH 08:37UA 2399	3h 18m Houston	IAH 11:55 → BNA 14:02UA 1318	7h 47m	99%	78%
American Details →	OMA 06:20 → CLT 09:58AA 1042	1h 27m Charlotte	CLT 11:25 → BNA 11:55AA 2409	5h 35m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	OMA 10:52 → MSP 12:15DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest	3h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 15:29 → BNA 17:35DL 2612	6h 43m	98%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	OMA 17:34 → CLT 21:00AA 2278	59m Charlotte	CLT 21:59 → BNA 22:25AA 1644	4h 51m	74%	54%
American Details →	OMA 19:53 → DFW 21:52AA 2270	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:42 → BNA 00:39 +1AA 2979	4h 46m	48%	27%
United Details →	OMA 18:40 → ORD 20:34UA 1476	1h 03m Chicago	ORD 21:37 → BNA 23:11UA 314	4h 31m	56%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON