Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1042 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1042 American Flight history →	OMA 06:20	CLT 09:58	8%	4%	1.8%	91%
AA 2278 American Flight history →	OMA 17:34	CLT 21:00	26%	9%	1.3%	85%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21DL 3864 · flown by SkyWest	3h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 10:30 → CLT 13:57DL 2819	6h 57m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:41DL 1136	1h 29m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → CLT 11:26DL 3190	5h 01m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	OMA 06:25 → DTW 09:28DL 4110 · flown by SkyWest	1h 09m Detroit	DTW 10:37 → CLT 12:24DL 2684	4h 59m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	OMA 07:01 → ATL 10:12DL 1157	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → CLT 13:31DL 2157	5h 30m	99%	81%
United Details →	OMA 06:00 → DEN 06:49UA 1442	2h 59m Denver	DEN 09:48 → CLT 15:02UA 2231	8h 02m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	OMA 10:52 → MSP 12:15DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest	3h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → CLT 18:49DL 2821	6h 57m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	OMA 08:10 → SLC 09:52DL 3874 · flown by SkyWest	1h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:55 → CLT 16:52DL 2070	7h 42m	97%	77%
American Details →	OMA 05:20 → DFW 07:20AA 2540	2h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:58 → CLT 13:33AA 2493	7h 13m	98%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	OMA 15:13 → ORD 17:05UA 739	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 18:15 → CLT 21:29UA 1748	5h 16m	71%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON