tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 5608 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → OMA 11:00 DCA 14:34 13% 4% 0.7% 84%
WN 1474 Southwest OMA 11:20 DCA 14:59 18% 5% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21DL 3864 · flown by SkyWest 3h 04m Minneapolis MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983 6h 48m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:41DL 1136 59m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 5h 02m 95% 83%
UnitedDetails → OMA 06:00 → DEN 06:49UA 1442 2h 42m Denver DEN 09:31 → DCA 15:00UA 789 8h 00m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → OMA 05:20 → DFW 07:20AA 2540 1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:40 → DCA 12:42AA 1177 6h 22m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → OMA 10:52 → MSP 12:15DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest 2h 22m Minneapolis MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963 6h 17m 97% 77%
AmericanDetails → OMA 07:00 → ORD 08:51AA 3197 1h 44m Chicago ORD 10:35 → DCA 13:41AA 1200 5h 41m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → OMA 06:15 → IAH 08:37UA 2399 3h 18m Houston IAH 11:55 → DCA 16:03UA 654 8h 48m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → OMA 06:00 → LGA 09:55DL 5295 · flown by Endeavor 1h 25m New York LGA 11:20 → DCA 12:42DL 5749 · flown by Republic 5h 42m 93% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → OMA 16:59 → DFW 19:05AA 2269 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077 6h 00m 61% 33%
UnitedDetails → OMA 15:13 → ORD 17:05UA 739 55m Chicago ORD 18:00 → DCA 21:10UA 1369 4h 57m 53% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON