Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3246 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 3246 OMA 07:00 → DEN 07:41 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1411 OMA 19:20 → DEN 20:00 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3246 Southwest	OMA 07:00	DEN 07:41	4%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1442 United Flight history →	OMA 06:00	DEN 06:49	5%	3%	0.7%	94%
OO 5935 SkyWest	OMA 11:52	DEN 12:41	16%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 3247 Southwest	OMA 12:05	DEN 12:47	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2838 United Flight history →	OMA 09:06	DEN 09:55	18%	4%	0.7%	76%
UA 1195 United Flight history →	OMA 13:48	DEN 14:35	25%	8%	0.7%	85%
OO 5504 SkyWest	OMA 19:10	DEN 20:20	25%	14%	1.1%	no record
WN 1861 Southwest	OMA 16:15	DEN 16:55	39%	12%	0.6%	no record
UA 1573 United	OMA 17:14	DEN 17:55	39%	16%	1.0%	no record
WN 1411 Southwest	OMA 19:20	DEN 20:00	41%	16%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON