Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2540 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 2540 OMA 05:20 → DFW 07:20 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2270 OMA 19:53 → DFW 21:52 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2540 American Flight history →	OMA 05:20	DFW 07:20	7%	4%	1.3%	89%
AA 2135 American	OMA 09:52	DFW 11:52	18%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 2823 American Flight history →	OMA 12:02	DFW 14:02	24%	8%	1.2%	63%
AA 2269 American Flight history →	OMA 16:59	DFW 19:05	31%	10%	1.3%	75%
AA 2270 American Flight history →	OMA 19:53	DFW 21:52	36%	11%	2.2%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON