Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 4110 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 4110 OMA 06:25 → DTW 09:28 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 3889 OMA 17:53 → DTW 20:56 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4110 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OMA 06:25	DTW 09:28	6%	4%	0.6%	91%
DL 4055 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OMA 10:28	DTW 13:30	12%	6%	0.6%	76%
DL 3762 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OMA 14:02	DTW 17:06	13%	8%	0.6%	77%
DL 3889 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OMA 17:53	DTW 20:56	17%	9%	0.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON