Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3128 at 05:22 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 3128 OMA 05:22 → MDW 06:57 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3244 OMA 16:50 → MDW 18:27 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3128 Southwest	OMA 05:22	MDW 06:57	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2856 Southwest	OMA 10:20	MDW 11:58	7%	3%	1.0%	no record
WN 143 Southwest	OMA 13:34	MDW 15:07	20%	7%	3.7%	no record
WN 3244 Southwest	OMA 16:50	MDW 18:27	34%	13%	3.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON