Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 3864 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 3864 OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest OO 3936 OMA 17:37 → MSP 18:57 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3864 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OMA 06:00	MSP 07:21	6%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 3512 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OMA 08:05	MSP 09:30	7%	4%	0.6%	87%
DL 3831 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OMA 10:52	MSP 12:15	9%	4%	0.6%	82%
OO 3946 SkyWest	OMA 13:41	MSP 15:02	13%	6%	0.7%	no record
OO 3936 SkyWest	OMA 17:37	MSP 18:57	19%	9%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON