Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1486 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 41–48%.

Safest bet that day UA 1486 OMA 05:57 → ORD 07:43 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1476 OMA 18:40 → ORD 20:34 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1486 United	OMA 05:57	ORD 07:43	7%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 3197 American Flight history →	OMA 07:00	ORD 08:51	11%	5%	1.1%	89%
OO 5385 SkyWest	OMA 08:05	ORD 09:54	13%	5%	1.4%	no record
AA 4042 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	OMA 10:23	ORD 12:07	15%	5%	1.7%	93%
UA 600 United Flight history →	OMA 11:23	ORD 13:15	19%	8%	1.1%	80%
OO 5511 SkyWest	OMA 13:10	ORD 15:07	29%	18%	3.4%	no record
MQ 3558 Envoy	OMA 12:14	ORD 13:53	31%	12%	2.4%	no record
UA 739 United Flight history →	OMA 15:13	ORD 17:05	39%	22%	1.8%	69%
MQ 3712 Envoy	OMA 20:43	ORD 22:14	41%	19%	4.8%	no record
UA 1476 United Flight history →	OMA 18:40	ORD 20:34	48%	27%	2.0%	63%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON