Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5074 American flown by PSA Flight history →	OMA 09:11	PHL 13:08	11%	4%	1.3%	95%
OH 5195 PSA	OMA 13:47	PHL 17:49	19%	8%	1.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21DL 3864 · flown by SkyWest	3h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 11:09 → PHL 14:43DL 2679	7h 43m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:41DL 1136	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279	6h 59m	99%	84%
United Details →	OMA 06:00 → DEN 06:49UA 1442	2h 46m Denver	DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:12UA 1575	8h 12m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	OMA 10:52 → MSP 12:15DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest	2h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 14:25 → PHL 18:04DL 2594	6h 12m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	OMA 08:10 → SLC 09:52DL 3874 · flown by SkyWest	1h 28m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:20 → PHL 17:39DL 2022	8h 29m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	OMA 07:01 → ATL 10:12DL 1157	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692	8h 03m	99%	77%
American Details →	OMA 05:20 → DFW 07:20AA 2540	1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:28 → PHL 12:45AA 2255	6h 25m	95%	76%
American Details →	OMA 06:20 → CLT 09:58AA 1042	3h 04m Charlotte	CLT 13:02 → PHL 14:50AA 2573	7h 30m	99%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	OMA 15:13 → ORD 17:05UA 739	54m Chicago	ORD 17:59 → PHL 21:19UA 1776	5h 06m	50%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON