Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3255 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 3255 OMA 05:50 → PHX 06:37 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3257 OMA 21:10 → PHX 21:57 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3255 Southwest	OMA 05:50	PHX 06:37	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
OO 4886 SkyWest	OMA 08:14	PHX 09:14	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 380 Southwest	OMA 11:40	PHX 12:27	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4893 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OMA 18:21	PHX 19:13	17%	8%	1.2%	93%
WN 1516 Southwest	OMA 17:20	PHX 18:06	25%	10%	0.7%	no record
AA 3039 American	OMA 14:28	PHX 15:21	25%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 3257 Southwest	OMA 21:10	PHX 21:57	30%	13%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON