Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3236 at 18:35, with a 38% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3236 Southwest	OMA 18:35	SAN 19:53	38%	13%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21DL 3864 · flown by SkyWest	1h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38DL 2121	6h 38m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	OMA 08:05 → MSP 09:30DL 3512 · flown by SkyWest	2h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125	7h 19m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:41DL 1136	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540	9h 43m	99%	75%
United Details →	OMA 06:00 → DEN 06:49UA 1442	51m Denver	DEN 07:40 → SAN 09:02UA 2309	5h 02m	90%	75%
Delta Details →	OMA 08:10 → SLC 09:52DL 3874 · flown by SkyWest	1h 18m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296	5h 58m	98%	73%
United Details →	OMA 06:15 → IAH 08:37UA 2399	3h 23m Houston	IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399	9h 06m	99%	71%
United Details →	OMA 09:06 → DEN 09:55UA 2838	3h 35m Denver	DEN 13:30 → SAN 14:55UA 1302	7h 49m	100%	70%
Delta Details →	OMA 10:14 → ATL 13:29DL 2632	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 15:37 → SAN 17:12DL 924	8h 58m	97%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	OMA 12:02 → DFW 14:02AA 2823	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:48 → SAN 15:58AA 2361	5h 56m	70%	41%
American Details →	OMA 19:53 → DFW 21:52AA 2270	1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:55 → SAN 23:59AA 2568	6h 06m	65%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON