Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AS 312 at 15:15, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 312 Alaska Flight history →	OMA 15:15	SEA 16:57	17%	4%	1.0%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21DL 3864 · flown by SkyWest	1h 44m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	6h 59m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	OMA 08:05 → MSP 09:30DL 3512 · flown by SkyWest	1h 40m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	6h 55m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:41DL 1136	1h 09m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	8h 48m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	OMA 07:01 → ATL 10:12DL 1157	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	9h 49m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	OMA 06:25 → DTW 09:28DL 4110 · flown by SkyWest	3h 01m Detroit	DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728	10h 04m	98%	79%
United Details →	OMA 06:00 → DEN 06:49UA 1442	1h 10m Denver	DEN 07:59 → SEA 09:48UA 1348	5h 48m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	OMA 10:52 → MSP 12:15DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest	3h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	8h 08m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	OMA 08:10 → SLC 09:52DL 3874 · flown by SkyWest	1h 43m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	6h 39m	98%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	OMA 19:53 → DFW 21:52AA 2270	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:41 → SEA 00:57 +1AA 1487	7h 04m	47%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON