tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1623 United OMA 06:57 SFO 08:37 12% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21DL 3864 · flown by SkyWest 3h 39m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 9h 09m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → OMA 10:52 → MSP 12:15DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest 2h 52m Minneapolis MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756 8h 20m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → OMA 07:01 → ATL 10:12DL 1157 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750 9h 49m 99% 73%
DeltaDetails → OMA 08:10 → SLC 09:52DL 3874 · flown by SkyWest 1h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902 5h 53m 98% 70%
UnitedDetails → OMA 06:00 → DEN 06:49UA 1442 2h 54m Denver DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506 7h 25m 99% 70%
DeltaDetails → OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:41DL 1136 59m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672 8h 08m 95% 70%
DeltaDetails → OMA 06:25 → DTW 09:28DL 4110 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m Detroit DTW 12:15 → SFO 14:17DL 469 9h 52m 98% 70%
UnitedDetails → OMA 06:15 → IAH 08:37UA 2399 4h 00m Houston IAH 12:37 → SFO 14:43UA 2611 10h 28m 99% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → OMA 19:53 → DFW 21:52AA 2270 1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:59 → SFO 00:43 +1AA 446 6h 50m 67% 33%
UnitedDetails → OMA 15:13 → ORD 17:05UA 739 1h 15m Chicago ORD 18:20 → SFO 21:18UA 2179 8h 05m 74% 31%
UnitedDetails → OMA 18:40 → ORD 20:34UA 1476 1h 01m Chicago ORD 21:35 → SFO 00:32 +1UA 2106 7h 52m 53% 25%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON