Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3259 at 08:35, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3259 Southwest	ONT 08:35	AUS 13:35	9%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446	1h 45m Denver	DEN 10:05 → AUS 13:20UA 1026	6h 20m	98%	81%
United Details →	ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363	1h 01m San Francisco	SFO 08:26 → AUS 14:02UA 1107	6h 02m	92%	78%
Delta Details →	ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708	1h 57m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → AUS 14:50DL 3955 · flown by SkyWest	6h 50m	97%	77%
United Details →	ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15UA 1375	3h 21m San Francisco	SFO 18:36 → AUS 00:16 +1UA 2332	8h 26m	98%	77%
American Details →	ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:29AA 1194	1h 25m Phoenix	PHX 08:54 → AUS 13:38AA 1059	5h 27m	92%	72%
American Details →	ONT 10:31 → DFW 15:43AA 1820	1h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:19 → AUS 18:28AA 3722 · flown by Envoy	5h 57m	91%	64%
American Details →	ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412	1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:32 → AUS 13:41AA 1852	6h 07m	97%	64%
Delta Details →	ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → AUS 22:07DL 1081	8h 19m	93%	61%
Tight connection: often missed
Frontier Details →	ONT 20:15 → LAS 21:35F9 4206	50m Las Vegas	LAS 22:25 → AUS 03:32 +1F9 4632	5h 17m	56%	37%
American Details →	ONT 14:28 → DFW 19:46AA 2635	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:33 → AUS 21:37AA 2707	5h 09m	60%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON