tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: American via Phoenix, leaving 06:11, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Nashville on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 41% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4996 Southwest ONT 06:00 BNA 11:58 5% 1% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 12m Denver DEN 09:32 → BNA 13:08UA 355 6h 08m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121 9h 27m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:59 → SEA 14:51DL 4070 · flown by SkyWest 2h 39m Seattle SEA 17:30 → BNA 23:54DL 815 9h 55m 95% 70%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:29AA 1194 1h 15m Phoenix PHX 08:44 → BNA 14:08AA 1370 5h 57m 89% 66%
FrontierDetails → ONT 06:00 → DEN 09:24F9 1500 1h 09m Denver DEN 10:33 → BNA 14:15F9 1402 6h 15m 90% 66%
AmericanDetails → ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412 2h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:46 → BNA 14:45AA 1084 7h 11m 98% 63%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 3h 53m Denver DEN 20:31 → BNA 00:08 +1UA 1287 8h 50m 94% 62%
AmericanDetails → ONT 07:00 → DFW 12:09AA 2893 2h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:15 → BNA 16:21AA 1181 7h 21m 96% 60%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 52m Denver DEN 17:30 → BNA 21:13UA 1300 5h 55m 52% 30%
AlaskaDetails → ONT 14:10 → SEA 16:47AS 575 46m Seattle SEA 17:33 → BNA 23:45AS 450 7h 35m 41% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON