tailodds FORECAST
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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, OO 3001 at 18:47, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 3001 SkyWest ONT 18:47 BOI 21:59 12% 9% 0.9% no record
AS 2026 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record ONT 16:18 BOI 19:13 21% 8% 0.0% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boise on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boise is 1 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → ONT 14:10 → SEA 16:47AS 575 3h 12m Seattle SEA 19:59 → BOI 22:24AS 2034 · flown by Horizon 7h 14m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708 2h 14m Salt Lake City SLC 11:02 → BOI 12:17DL 2095 5h 17m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 3h 16m Denver DEN 11:36 → BOI 13:35UA 2255 7h 35m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:29AA 1194 2h 49m Phoenix PHX 10:18 → BOI 13:41AA 4080 · flown by Envoy 6h 30m 95% 79%
AlaskaDetails → ONT 17:32 → PDX 19:49AS 2456 · flown by Horizon 1h 50m Portland PDX 21:39 → BOI 00:01 +1AS 447 5h 29m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:59 → SEA 14:51DL 4070 · flown by SkyWest 1h 19m Seattle SEA 16:10 → BOI 18:46DL 3688 · flown by SkyWest 5h 47m 93% 78%
AlaskaDetails → ONT 07:25 → PDX 09:49AS 544 56m Portland PDX 10:45 → BOI 13:07AS 329 4h 42m 91% 76%
AlaskaDetails → ONT 06:02 → SEA 08:44AS 607 1h 15m Seattle SEA 09:59 → BOI 12:26AS 2230 · flown by Horizon 5h 24m 91% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → ONT 14:10 → SEA 16:47AS 575 53m Seattle SEA 17:40 → BOI 20:07AS 2109 · flown by Horizon 4h 57m 56% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON