tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via SFO, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Baltimore on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363 2h 08m San Francisco SFO 09:33 → BWI 17:57UA 2664 8h 57m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 26m Denver DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362 7h 17m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 21:36 → BWI 23:41DL 2670 8h 53m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:57 → ORD 12:58UA 2226 2h 25m Chicago ORD 15:23 → BWI 18:31UA 2737 8h 34m 97% 58%
AmericanDetails → ONT 07:00 → DFW 12:09AA 2893 3h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:25 → BWI 19:45AA 2805 9h 45m 97% 57%
AmericanDetails → ONT 10:31 → DFW 15:43AA 1820 3h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:37 → BWI 23:43AA 2251 10h 12m 97% 50%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 1h 27m Denver DEN 18:05 → BWI 23:30UA 2843 7h 12m 83% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON