Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Charlotte on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446	1h 28m Denver	DEN 09:48 → CLT 15:02UA 2231	7h 02m	97%	79%
American Details →	ONT 19:18 → PHX 20:47AA 1666	2h 56m Phoenix	PHX 23:43 → CLT 06:52 +1AA 2821	8h 34m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708	2h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:55 → CLT 16:52DL 2070	7h 52m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177	9h 10m	99%	77%
American Details →	ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:29AA 1194	2h 31m Phoenix	PHX 10:00 → CLT 17:15AA 665	8h 04m	94%	71%
American Details →	ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412	1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696	7h 02m	95%	69%
American Details →	ONT 07:00 → DFW 12:09AA 2893	2h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:33 → CLT 18:14AA 3227	8h 14m	96%	66%
American Details →	ONT 10:31 → DFW 15:43AA 1820	3h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:47 → CLT 22:21AA 3002	8h 50m	95%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263	1h 07m Denver	DEN 17:45 → CLT 23:08UA 616	6h 50m	73%	43%
American Details →	ONT 12:43 → DFW 17:59AA 2956	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:47 → CLT 22:21AA 3002	6h 38m	60%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON