tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 11m Denver DEN 09:31 → DCA 15:00UA 789 7h 00m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708 1h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820 7h 35m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363 55m San Francisco SFO 08:20 → DCA 16:47UA 1678 7h 47m 88% 73%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:29AA 1194 1h 01m Phoenix PHX 08:30 → DCA 15:59AA 3191 6h 48m 88% 70%
AmericanDetails → ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412 1h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:54 → DCA 15:59AA 1414 7h 25m 95% 68%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537 9h 04m 98% 68%
FrontierDetails → ONT 06:00 → DEN 09:24F9 1500 2h 01m Denver DEN 11:25 → DCA 16:59F9 688 7h 59m 96% 65%
AmericanDetails → ONT 07:00 → DFW 12:09AA 2893 2h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:01 → DCA 19:20AA 2520 9h 20m 97% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ONT 12:43 → DFW 17:59AA 2956 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:52 → DCA 22:59AA 2752 7h 16m 67% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON