tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 49m Denver DEN 10:09 → EWR 16:10UA 2381 8h 10m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708 1h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033 7h 49m 97% 68%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552 10h 10m 99% 67%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363 50m San Francisco SFO 08:15 → EWR 16:53UA 435 7h 53m 83% 64%
AlaskaDetails → ONT 06:02 → SEA 08:44AS 607 1h 14m Seattle SEA 09:58 → EWR 17:58AS 292 8h 56m 90% 59%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:29AA 1194 59m Phoenix PHX 08:28 → EWR 16:09AA 1327 6h 58m 88% 59%
AmericanDetails → ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412 1h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:06 → EWR 16:45AA 813 8h 11m 95% 58%
AlaskaDetails → ONT 18:56 → SEA 21:33AS 592 1h 08m Seattle SEA 22:41 → EWR 06:40 +1AS 395 8h 44m 81% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON