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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 38m Denver DEN 09:58 → FLL 16:08UA 1214 8h 08m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708 1h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → FLL 17:28DL 745 8h 28m 97% 69%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229 9h 51m 99% 69%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:29AA 1194 1h 01m Phoenix PHX 08:30 → FLL 16:05AA 550 6h 54m 88% 63%
AmericanDetails → ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:39 → FLL 15:39AA 3220 7h 05m 92% 61%
AmericanDetails → ONT 07:00 → DFW 12:09AA 2893 2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:29 → FLL 18:30AA 2798 8h 30m 96% 60%
AmericanDetails → ONT 10:31 → DFW 15:43AA 1820 3h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:09 → FLL 23:17AA 1847 9h 46m 96% 55%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 1h 07m Denver DEN 17:45 → FLL 23:49UA 1374 7h 31m 73% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON