Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4045 ONT 08:00 → HNL 11:10 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 2608 ONT 14:02 → HNL 17:09 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4045 Southwest	ONT 08:00	HNL 11:10	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 270 Alaska Flight history →	ONT 06:57	HNL 10:06	13%	3%	0.6%	86%
AS 2608 Alaska	ONT 14:02	HNL 17:09	20%	7%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363	1h 55m San Francisco	SFO 09:20 → HNL 11:43UA 1175	8h 43m	98%	84%
United Details →	ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15UA 1375	1h 30m San Francisco	SFO 16:45 → HNL 19:25UA 1509	8h 35m	88%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON