tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2267 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2267 United ONT 05:57 IAH 11:15 8% 3% 0.9% no record
F9 3132 Frontier Flight history → ONT 18:36 IAH 23:58 24% 9% 1.1% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363 1h 30m San Francisco SFO 08:55 → IAH 15:07UA 2498 7h 07m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 3h 14m Denver DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599 8h 09m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15UA 1375 3h 12m San Francisco SFO 18:27 → IAH 00:24 +1UA 2464 8h 34m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 10h 09m 99% 73%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:29AA 1194 1h 26m Phoenix PHX 08:55 → IAH 13:48AA 2357 5h 37m 92% 69%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 3h 50m Denver DEN 20:28 → IAH 23:59UA 2419 8h 41m 94% 62%
FrontierDetails → ONT 07:46 → LAS 09:06F9 2232 2h 32m Las Vegas LAS 11:38 → IAH 16:50F9 1966 7h 04m 96% 60%
AmericanDetails → ONT 14:28 → DFW 19:46AA 2635 3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:55 → IAH 00:14 +1AA 3023 7h 46m 98% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → ONT 14:10 → SEA 16:47AS 575 49m Seattle SEA 17:36 → IAH 23:47AS 240 7h 37m 46% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON