Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 454 JetBlue Flight history →	ONT 23:58	JFK 08:20	27%	8%	1.2%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ONT 17:32 → PDX 19:49AS 2456 · flown by Horizon	1h 39m Portland	PDX 21:28 → JFK 05:28 +1AS 336	8h 56m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708	1h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792	7h 47m	96%	76%
Delta Details →	ONT 18:01 → SEA 20:50DL 4031 · flown by SkyWest	1h 50m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → JFK 06:50 +1DL 452	9h 49m	96%	71%
Delta Details →	ONT 11:59 → SEA 14:51DL 4070 · flown by SkyWest	1h 13m Seattle	SEA 16:04 → JFK 00:04 +1DL 1044	9h 05m	92%	71%
Delta Details →	ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → JFK 00:51 +1DL 1632	10h 03m	99%	70%
Alaska Details →	ONT 07:25 → PDX 09:49AS 544	58m Portland	PDX 10:47 → JFK 19:23AS 18	8h 58m	92%	69%
American Details →	ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412	2h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:11 → JFK 17:47AA 1058	9h 13m	98%	67%
Alaska Details →	ONT 18:56 → SEA 21:33AS 592	1h 42m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → JFK 07:38 +1AS 22	9h 42m	89%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ONT 19:18 → PHX 20:47AA 1666	1h 03m Phoenix	PHX 21:50 → JFK 05:47 +1AA 1587	7h 29m	68%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON