Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3267 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 3267 ONT 07:00 → LAS 08:12 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2342 ONT 17:27 → LAS 18:37 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3267 Southwest	ONT 07:00	LAS 08:12	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1254 Southwest	ONT 10:00	LAS 11:12	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 2232 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 07:46	LAS 09:06	17%	5%	0.9%	84%
F9 4206 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 20:15	LAS 21:35	35%	12%	1.2%	73%
WN 3278 Southwest	ONT 13:51	LAS 15:03	35%	8%	0.6%	no record
F9 4758 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 15:40	LAS 16:51	36%	11%	1.0%	70%
WN 3239 Southwest	ONT 19:15	LAS 20:27	40%	12%	0.6%	no record
WN 2342 Southwest	ONT 17:27	LAS 18:37	43%	10%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON