tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 29m Denver DEN 09:49 → LGA 15:46UA 2446 7h 46m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520 8h 36m 94% 72%
AmericanDetails → ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412 1h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:33 → LGA 17:05AA 672 8h 31m 97% 62%
AmericanDetails → ONT 07:00 → DFW 12:09AA 2893 1h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:06 → LGA 18:47AA 1806 8h 47m 96% 60%
AmericanDetails → ONT 10:31 → DFW 15:43AA 1820 3h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:01 → LGA 23:31AA 1375 10h 00m 96% 57%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:57 → ORD 12:58UA 2226 2h 25m Chicago ORD 15:23 → LGA 18:43UA 2133 8h 46m 97% 52%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 57m Denver DEN 17:35 → LGA 23:30UA 2033 7h 12m 61% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON