Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via SFO, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Orlando on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363	1h 32m San Francisco	SFO 08:57 → MCO 17:30UA 583	8h 30m	97%	77%
United Details →	ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446	1h 50m Denver	DEN 10:10 → MCO 16:04UA 2354	8h 04m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	ONT 18:01 → SEA 20:50DL 4031 · flown by SkyWest	2h 25m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → MCO 07:40 +1DL 448	10h 39m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708	2h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:23 → MCO 18:01DL 2024	9h 01m	98%	69%
Delta Details →	ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → MCO 23:58DL 1162	9h 10m	99%	67%
American Details →	ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412	1h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:12 → MCO 15:57AA 1615	7h 23m	96%	62%
Frontier Details →	ONT 06:00 → DEN 09:24F9 1500	1h 12m Denver	DEN 10:36 → MCO 16:30F9 3312	7h 30m	90%	61%
American Details →	ONT 07:00 → DFW 12:09AA 2893	1h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:45 → MCO 17:35AA 1692	7h 35m	96%	55%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ONT 10:31 → DFW 15:43AA 1820	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:33 → MCO 20:25AA 2791	6h 54m	72%	38%
American Details →	ONT 14:28 → DFW 19:46AA 2635	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:35 → MCO 00:21 +1AA 1336	6h 53m	64%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON